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Schroders - Investment Weather Forecast - global bonds continue to find support

Gareth Isaac, Fixed Income Fund Manager, discusses why the outlook for global bonds rests on central bank monetary policy and which areas of the market could come under pressure in the coming months:

The outlook for the global bond markets remains constructive in the near-term.

Although interest rates are likely to rise in the US at some point this year, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will only move gradually, and rates will then likely rise to levels seen in previous tightening cycles.

The reason that they can be so measured, despite a marked improvement in the outlook for the US economy, is that inflation remains very low by historical standards, and we expect inflationary pressures to remain benign for the foreseeable future.

Elsewhere in the world, interest rates in major economies are likely to remain on hold, which will support bond prices.

The market will also be supported by unconventional central bank measures such as quantitative easing.

The European Central Bank has begun a long-term bond purchase programme, as has Japan, and these measures will keep downward pressure on bond yields.

A major concern is that the Fed, in its desire to be slow and gradual, will leave monetary policy too loose and medium-term inflationary pressures will build.

US unemployment has fallen sharply over recent years, and we’re starting to see the signs of improving wage growth.

Increases in real wages will drive consumption and may push up inflation once the base effects from the commodity decline pass through.

Monetary policy works with a lag, and if the Fed waits until it sees signs of inflationary pressures building, it may need to hike more aggressively than the market expects, causing some adverse market movements.

Another concern is that debt levels among European countries have risen to unsustainable levels.

Much has been commented on Greece, but many other countries have debt levels that are too high, and when the next crisis or recession arises, then sustainability of those countries will be called into question.

Company: Schroders
Video Type: CPD

Schroders - Investment Weather Forecast - global bonds continue to find support

Date added: 16-10-2015
Duration: 3
Categories: Fixed Income

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Schroders - Investment Weather Forecast - Fixed Income

Schroders’ Co-Head of Fixed Income, Philippe Lespinard, outlines his expectations for the year ahead in global fixed income markets:

- The sun is shining on the European bond market – the current environment of subdued growth and low inflation as well as the recently announced asset purchase policy should support European bonds.
- We are less positive on the US, where stronger economy growth and a tightening labour market as well as a potential normalisation of interest rates later in the year could be less positive for US fixed income.
- The rest of the world is seeing mixed weather, particularly in emerging markets where energy producing countries are being hampered by the fall in oil price, while others are benefitting

Company: Schroders

Schroders - Investment Weather Forecast - Fixed Income

Date added: 30-01-2016
Duration: 2
Categories: Fixed Income

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Northern Trust - 10-Year Treasury Yields: Be Prepared

10-Year U.S. Treasury yields are currently near the 1.50% level and the majority of investors believe these rates are highly unlikely to move much lower, especially to a record low of 1%. But that's where we think they are headed. Learn more about where we go from here.

Company: Northern Trust

Northern Trust - 10-Year Treasury Yields: Be Prepared

Date added: 22-08-2016
Duration: 3
Categories: Fixed Income

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